Elderly Warfarin - Bleeding Risk Model

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Clinical Use

Predict 90-day bleeding risk in the elderly with atrial fibrillation on warfarin

More Info

Elderly Warfarin Bleeding Risk Model is a prediction model using nationally derived data from 19,875 patients hospitalized with atrial fibrillation and discharged on warfarin therapy. The model has eight clinical variables and identifies groups at low, intermediate, and high risk of major bleeding within 90 days of hospital discharge.

 

Elderly Warfarin Bleeding Risk Scoring
VariablePoints

Anemia

86

Alcohol or drug abuse

71

Recent bleeding

62

Remote bleeding

58

Age ≥70 years

49

Female sex

32

Antiplatelet use

32

Diabetes mellitus

27

 

Risk of major bleeding according to Elderly Warfarin Bleeding Risk Model  
ScoreRiskMajor bleeding at 90 days

<108

Low

0.9%

108-218

Intermediate

2.0%

>218

High

5.4%

Reference

1.Theresa I. Shireman, Jonathan D. Mahnken, Patricia A. Howard, Timothy F. Kresowik, Qingjiang Hou and Edward F. Ellerbeck. Development of a Contemporary Bleeding Risk Model for Elderly Warfarin Recipients. Chest 2006;130;1390-1396 Abstract

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Developer: Sirikarn Napan, MD, FACC